One of the areas that the Timbers (3-3-3) are trying to improve on is the offensive side, specifically trying to get more production and consistency up front from their forwards. Of the 9 goals the Timbers have scored this season, 7 of those have come from midfielder Ryan Pore. Forwards Mandjou Keita and OJ Obatola each have one goal apiece. Portland has played 8 league games this season and already coach Gavin Wilkinson has gone through 5 different starting forward combinations. The Timbers are winless in their last 4 league games, only managing to score 2 goals in those matches, and as the team moves forward and tries to get back on the winning track, it's imperative that they find the forwards who can lead the attack and find the back of the net. So, let's break down the Timber's roster of forwards and see what we can come up with.What do we know? We know that the starting left forward spot if locked up by Mandjou Keita. So, it comes down who is going to play along side him and create a consistent threat up the right side of the field. Now, what are the Timbers looking for our of their forwards? First, they need someone who isn't afraid to shoot, take chances, and can then finish those chances. Second, they need the type of forward that can hold the ball, a forward that has enough ball skill and control to relieve pressure up front and allow our midfielders to make runs into the final third. And third,, they could use a forward who's physically strong, a player who's going to make the opposing defense work and a player who's willing to cover more than 30 yards, someone who's capable of getting back to help on defense and make some plays in the midfield.
Here's the list of forwards the Timbers have on their current roster:
Takayuki Suzuki - age 34
Mandjou Keita - age 30
George Josten - age 24
Bright Dike - age 23
Doug DeMartin - age 23
OJ Obatola - age 22
Game-by-game stats of the different forward combinations:
Game 1 vs Rochester
Starters
DeMartin - 86 mins, 1 shot
OJ Obatola - 56 mins, 1 shot
SubsGeorge Josten - 34 mins, 3 shots
Game 2 vs AC St Louis
Starters
George Josten - 70 mins, 1 assist, 3 shots
OJ Obatola - 71 mins, 1 goal, 1 assist, 1 shot
SubsTaka Suzuki - 19 mins, 2 shots
Bright Dike - 20 mins
Game 3 vs Montreal
Starters
George Josten - 89 mins, 2 shots
OJ Obatola - 61 mins
Subs
Doug DeMartin - 29 mins, 1 shot
Taka Suzuki - 1 min
Game 4 vs Vancouver
Starters
George Josten - 90 mins, 1 shot
OJ Obatola - 45 mins, 2 shots
Subs
Doug DeMartin - 45 mins, 2 shots
Taka Suzuki - 1 min
Game 5 vs Crystal Palace Baltimore
Starters
Mandjou Keita - 90 mins, 4 shots
George Josten - 90 mins, 6 shots
Subs
Doug DeMartin - 7 mins, 1 shots
Game 6 vs AC St Louis
Starters
Mandjou Keita - 84 mins, 1 goal, 1 shot
OJ Obatola - 71 mins, 4 shots
Subs
Doug DeMartin - 19 mins
Bright Dike - 6 mins
Game 7 vs Montreal
Starters
Mandjou Keita - 90 mins, 2 shots
OJ Obatola - 45 mins, 2 shots
Subs
George Josten - 33 mins
Taka Suzuki - 15 mins
Game 8 vs Crystal Palace Baltimore
Starters
Mandjou Keita - 59 mins
Taka Suzuki - 77 mins, 2 shots
Subs
George Josten - 41 mins, 1 shot
And here are charts tracking each forward's player rating through the first 8 games (average player ratings from Dropping Timber, Portland media, and fan contributions):
So what do these stats indicate? Can they really tell us anything? I think one thing that can be taken from the table for sure is that the play of our forwards has been inconsistent as shown by the up and down nature of the rankings.
Let's further assess each player and their performances so far this season:
Mandjou Keita - The starting left forward and I doubt anyone's arguing. He already proved last season that he's dangerous with the ball and can strike from just about anywhere. Keita excels with ball control, passing in traffic, and holding off defenders for quick shots. You can't penalize him for missing the first 4 games, not his fault, but strangely enough he's struggled in the last couple games and the team as a whole has struggled to find shots. His first game back, Keita showed his value. His awareness, vision, and savvy helped create opportunities against Baltimore the 1st time around, but in the last 3 matches the forwards have only taken 12 shots total. What's going on? Are defenses successfully shutting him down? Or are Keita's teammates not finding him the ball enough? Should Keita shoulder some of this blame?
George Josten - The Gonzaga grad is an interesting case. He's an aggressive, strong striker and works hard to create opportunities. However, with more minutes than any other forward and a year of experience in the system under his belt, you'd hope for a bit more consistency. He leads all forwards with 16 shots this season, but has zero goals to show for it. Not only that, but I can recall at least two occasions where Josten has missed wide open shots on an open goal, something that he did a few times last season as well. Finishing is Josten's Achilles's heel and if he wants to earn his starting spot back, he's going to have to prove that he possesses the mental toughness and resolve to not choke away those chances. Still, you can't discount his ability to find the action.
Bright Dike - That Dike is so hot right now. Leading the Dropping Timber Poll, everyone seems to be jumping on the Dike band-wagon after his solid performance against Boca Juniors. A Notre Dame graduate, Dike was a first-team all Big Ten selection his junior and senior year and scored a total of 23 goals in those two seasons combined. At 6-1 and 225 lbs, Dike is a traditional American striker with all the physical tools. Big, strong, and fast, a true physical specimen. However, many scouts have criticized him for his lack of ball skills and his ability to control in tight quarters. Dike should see some more playing time in the near future, we'll see if he can make the most of it.
Doug DeMartin - DeMartin isn't the strongest or fastest guy, but in many ways he's the opposite of a player like Dike. DeMartin is very poised with the ball, has good vision, and decent ball control. What he lacks in physical prowess, he makes up for in hard work and effort plays. In the season opener, DeMartin's only start of the year, I thought he played pretty well and did a good job of moving the ball. DeMartin's playing time has been inconsistent since then and I'd expect him to continue to come off the bench and be used in short stints for the time being.
OJ Obatola - A walk-on of sorts, the Nigerian is the team's youngest striker, earning his stripes playing in the Singaporean S-league and winning the Young Player of the Year award in 2009. OJ has good speed and a dangerous foot. He's shown quick reactions in the box, but could improve ball control. Patience and decision making has been inconsistent, but that's expected from an inexperienced former trial player. Overall, he's shown promise, and an ability to get his shot off. Also, he'll forever be apart of Timber history with that game winner against the Sounders.
Takayuki Suzuki - Good skills with the ball, solid vision and passing abilities, and can apply pressure effectively both offensively and defensively. Age and injuries have slowed Taka down, but his experience playing high-level soccer is invaluable. Don't expect him to play any 90 minute games, but don't expect him to completely drop out of the rotation. Suzuki's play hasn't been his best this season, struggling to really create thus far. Still, he's the crafty veteran that Wilkinson can call on when needed.
*** So, who should be starting at forward? I'm going with Mandjou Keita and Bright Dike, for now. So far this season, nobody has really stepped up and taken the job, so Wilkinson has been forced to rely on a rotating forward by committee of sorts. Aside from Keita and Suzuki, the Timbers have a very young and relatively inexperienced collection of strikers, who have all shown promise, and all bring their own unique strengths and weaknesses. I have a feeling that Wilkinson might keep his options open and plug in different starters depending on what's needed against each opponent. Different forwards give the team different looks offensively. Still, ultimately it would be best if somebody could get hot, score some goals, and claim the job.
*** UPDATE ***
Make that 6 different starting forward combinations through the first 9 games.
Game 9 VS Carolina
Starters
Keita - 78 mins, 3 shots
Dike - 72 mins, 1 assist, 2 shots
Subs
Josten - 18 mins
DeMartin - 12 mins
DROP OF THE DAY
Who should be starting alongside Keita? Does the team need a physical, aggressive presence on the right side or would they benefit more from a player with patience and passing abilities? Are the early struggles only a result of inexperience and youth? And if so, who has the potential to step up and raise their level of play? What are your thoughts?
I agree with you on taking the chance and starting Dike, although I think Suzuki needs more time as well. Start Dike, half way through if he isn't producing results change him out. Although I don't know why the Timbers don't try a different playbook and go 4-3-3 sometimes. If two forwards aren't getting through the defense, make the other team's defense work harder. I think our defense and midfielders could handle it.
ReplyDeletePS did you see the Sunday Times today? The cover is about football academies: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/06/magazine/06Soccer-t.html?pagewanted=1&ref=magazine
BoDro, great link on that Ny Times article, very interesting read. I also, agree that Suzuki needs to play more and I'm a bit more partial to OJ right now, although Dike's performance tonight against Carolina was very promising.
ReplyDeletedike with josten up top. dike gives a great physical presence while josten's work rate really helps up our tempo. i understand he scored a ton last year, but i have never been sold on keita. his first touch is lacking and he isn't able to hold the ball up as well. my biggest criticism of the team this year is in our linking between the mids and forwards. the team ends up for long periods playing long balls up to the forwards. the problem is that keita's passing and touch usually gifts possession back, which doesn't allow the midfield to get involved as much offensively. thus we are unable to get a consistent amount of possesion going forward.
ReplyDeletei also believe part of the offense problem is a lack of width. in tonights game, nimo and pore drift in central far too much. if we switch play through the midfield, the outside mid is standing in the middle of the pitch to recieve the ball, five yards from the center mid. more width would give the forwards more space to work in. teams have too easy of a time now condensing the space and defending in numbers. sorry for the long post, but i get frustrated with gavin sticking to the keita experiment.
i think dike showed us tonight he deserves the spot. i think keita needs to come off the bench unless he is producing - which he isn't. i'm partial to josten or oj though. suzuki might be an interesting start, let him go all out first half, and sub him out for the remainder.
ReplyDeleteThe starters should be Keita and Dike. Dike has been playing good and Keita will get it going soon. How can you not want Keita to start? That's crazy! Keita is the man, he lead us in points last season! Keita is our most skilled forward and he's an awesome passer.
ReplyDeleteIf Josten starts then we won't score any goals, he's better coming off the bench. But I'd really like DeMartin to get more of a chance to show what he can do. He's young, but I like his ability. The more I look it over the more I think the Timbers are pretty stacked at forward actually.
The starters should be OJ Obatola and Keita. Dike is very over rated. He simply does not have football in him. That's the problem with FUTBOL in the US, everything is size size size. Without the size, Dike would have been just another regular college soccer player.
ReplyDeleteI heard OJ Obatola was released from the team, that is such a shame. It has to be for more than football reasons because he was very solid as a starter. Does anyone know why?
ReplyDelete